09
MAY
2016

Bet Numbers Not Teams

comment : 0

I was talking with a buddy of mine a few years back about an NFL game coming up that weekend. I can’t remember the exact matchup but it was something like Oakland at Seattle. We’re talking about the game and we get to the point where he goes “You’ve gotta take Seattle right? The Seahawks are so good and Oakland is just so bad. I could never bet on Oakland in this game.” The line I believe was Seattle -13.5, so I say “well what if the line was 14.5, do you take Oakland then?” Again he says no. I push further “What if the line was 17.5, do you take Oakland then?” Again he says no. Finally I get crazy and say “Ok, what if the line was 51.5, do you take Oakland then?” At that point he finally connects the dots and gives me one of those ok I get it kind of looks. Point being, there is always a number where an underdog has value. You can’t simply go into a game thinking Team A is good, Team B is bad, therefore Team A will cover the spread. If it were that easy we’d all be rich. Bet numbers, not teams.

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