12
MAY
2016

MLB May 12th

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Red Sox -133: Many people will see David Price’s 6.75 ERA and assume he’s just been horrid so far this season. A deeper look however will reveal a ton of bad luck and a 2.97 xFIP that’s actually top 10 in all of baseball. Price is allowing a .373 BABIP and stranding an absurdly low only 54% of baserunners. What keeps me encouraged about Price is his 11.54 K/9 rate which is one of the best in the league. Ultimately he’s still a high K, low BB guy and in general those types have a ton of success. I look for Price to start cutting into that ERA significantly, and for it to happen very soon. On the other end 2015 Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel has been a bit unlucky too. His .344 BABIP is a bit unlucky and his strand rate is down a bit too. That said even with what should be a solid outing from Keuchel tonight, I can’t pass on the Sox at this price.

Tigers +155: Mike Pelfrey is awful. He’s absolutely terrible and honestly shouldn’t even be in a big league rotation. That said, Ubaldo shouldn’t be laying this kind of number against anyone. He threw well in his last outing and that might account for this inflated line, but overall he’s a mess. His high BB rate keeps his pitch count upĀ and he’s usually battling just to get through 5 or 6 innings. He allows a ton of baserunners and it seems like he’s constantly trying to avoid that big inning against him. At +155 I’ll take my chances that the Tigers can do enough damage to him to offset how bad Pelfrey is.

D-Backs +100: I really think Zack Greinke is going to get it turned around here and start to revert back to his 2015 form. His first few starts as a D-Back were rough but since then he’s started to figure it out and his peripherals point to some better times ahead. Greinke has allowed a .360 BABIP to go with only a 68% strand rate. His career strand rate is around 75% and that BABIP of .360 needless to say will start coming down. From a stuff perspective I think he’s fine. His K rate is actually up a bit from what it was in 2015 and his BB’s as usual as very low. Once he gets it going you won’t get lines like even money at home for this guy. You’ll find him in that -160 or higher range, so I’ll get in cheap while I still can.

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