Phillies -114: Back in 2014 Aaron Nola was a top 10 pick by the Phillies and so far early in his career he’s showing exactly why. Nola has been carving the league up this season. Right now he’s sporting a 9.9 K/9 ratio to go with only 1.58 BB/9 allowed. Nola has pinpoint control and a curveball that many think is the best in the league. The Marlins will send Justin Nicolino to face Nola. In 87 career IP Nicolino has 25 K’s, which works out to a 2.58 K/9. This year in 13.1 IP that number is even lower at only 2 K’s on the year for a 1.35 K/9 ratio. League average for K’s/9 is about 7, so having one as low as Nicolino is unbelievably rare. What does all that mean? Frankly it means his stuff just isn’t very good. He isn’t fooling anyone and his stuff isn’t good enough to keep guys from putting the ball in play. SP edge is just too much to ignore here.
ML Parlay: White Sox & Cubs (+112): Nothing too complicated about this one, just going with two teams that on paper should clearly win and parlaying them to avoid the heavy chalk. I don’t need to get into Jake Arrieta, by now you all know how dirty he’s been over the last year and change. The guy is a freak and should once again be dominant again today. What you might not realize is how good the White Sox Jose Quintana has been. Although his W/L record wouldn’t show it Quintana has actually been very solid the last 3 seasons and is at again this year. The MO for Quintana is simple. He pounds the strike zone, goes deep into ballgames, and gives you a QS the majority of the time. If he and Arrieta are near their typical form today both should be able to get W’s. At +112 i’ll bet that they will be.
Red Sox +104: There’s no denying Luis Severino has had some bad luck this year. His BABIP is .363 and his HR rate is 20%. Both of those numbers are unsustainable and will improve, no question about it. What concerns me about Severino is his K rate and the steep drop that’s seen so far this season. At only 5.61 K/9 he isn’t missing many bats and that’s not a good thing against a Red Sox offense that hits right handed pitching harder than any team in the league. The way Severino is throwing right now I think there’s a very strong chance the Sox beat up on him a bit tonight.