Orioles +121: If you’ve listened to the podcast I posted this morning you know that myself and LooseMoose6 are completely selling on Marco Estrada. Estrada is due, perhaps more than anyone else in the league for some serious regression. Right now his ERA is 2.41, but his 4.68 xFIP is nearly double that and it’s actually the 15th worst xFIP in the league. Estrada is somehow getting by with a .191 BABIP and an 80% strand rate. His ground ball rate of only 36.2% is also 7th worst in the league. There are glaring signs of regression all over the place for this guy. I think it’s coming, and it’s coming soon. For now at least Estrada is borderline auto-fade material, and I’ll happily begin that tonight. Orioles starter Kevin Gausman is putting up numbers that while on the surface (ERA) aren’t as good, but when you look deeper are far more impressive than Estradas. Gausman is working with a high K rate, a low BB rate, and a respectable 3.74 xFIP that’s nearly a full run better than Estradas. 

Indians -132: This is a very nice price to back what I think is one of the best teams in the AL, with their ace throwing, against a very poor pitcher. We’ll start with Angels starter Hector Santiago and his 4.85 xFIP which is 11th worst in baseball. With Santiago the problems are easy to see, too many walks, way too few ground balls, and far too much hard contact. Simply put it’s a recipe for disaster, and a good offense like the Indians should be able to beat up on him pretty nicely. Corey Kluber on the other hand is the same guy he’s always been. His xFIP of 3.37 is 10th best in all of baseball and it’s just business as usual for the tribe right hander. As always his K rate is high, his BB rate is low, and his ground ball rate is solid. To me the Indians are the far better team here, Kluber is far and away better than Santiago, and at only -132 this line feels about 15 cents too cheap. 

1st 5 Innings Phillies/Nationals Un 4 (-120): By now you guys know I’m completely buying on Jeremy Hellickson. Right now Hell boy is working with a 9.04 K/9 rate to go with a 2.23 BB/9 rate, both of which, especially the K rate is very impressive. His 3.47 xFIP is currently 17th best in baseball. There’s no denying Hellickson had down years in 2014 and 2015, but he’s back in a big way now. As good as Hellickson has been, Stephen Strasburg has been even better. Stras currently has a 2.91 xFIP which is 6th best in baseball, and his 11.39 K/9 rate is 2nd best in the league. Simply put Strasburg is one the nastiest pitchers in the game right now and with Hellickson also pitching like a top 20 SP, I’m fully expecting a low scoring game early on tonight.

1st 5 Innings Mets/Brewers Un 4.5 (-105): Matt Harvey’s last two starts have everyone thinking he’s turned the corner and he’s back again. While that might be true, I would argue there was never really anything wrong with him to begin with. All that’s really happening with Harvey is that some of the insane bad luck that was going against him is starting to even out. His BABIP is slowly starting to come back towards his career level and league averages. His HR/FB is doing the same, and what do you know? The results are following. I look for Harvey to keep the good times going tonight and to keep pitching well through the summer, I said all along there was nothing to worry about with him, and I maintain that position now. Opposing him is Junior Guerra who I have touched on in his last few starts. I don’t expect Guerra to be an ace or anything along those lines, but he’s a respectable middle of the rotation guy. He’s got a K rate of 8.29 K/9 and an xFIP of 4.05 which is decent enough. Combined with how well Harvey is throwing the ball right now, I think this one is sitting at 2-0 or 2-1 after the first 5.

1st 5 Innings Dodgers/Giants Un 3 (-135): Not a ton of analysis needed for this one, it’s Clayton Kershaw and Johnny Cueto. Kershaw in my opinion is the best pitcher in baseball by miles right now, there’s nobody else even in his class. With a guy that good getting into the numbers would just be a waste of time, he’s off the charts good. Simple as that. Johnny Cueto has also been excellent this season, and he currently sits with a 3.43 xFIP that is 15th best in baseball. Yes Cueto is due for some regression and his ERA won’t stay in the low 2’s, but even when that regression comes he’s going to remain a very good pitcher. In a game like this if these teams find their way to 4 runs in the 1st 5 innings, so be it, I’ll take my loss and move on. I just don’t think they can do it.

Marlins/D-Backs Ov 9.5 (-105): We’ve got two low K lefties doing battle here, and as I’ve mentioned before, when I’m betting overs going against low K guys is one of the first things I’m looking for. Patrick Corbin has a K rate of only 6.47 K/9 which is 24th lowest in the league. His counterpart tonight Justin Nicolino has a K rate of 3.57 K/9 which is dead last in the league. Chase Field is a nice hitters park to begin with, and when you throw two pitchers out there who have a tough time missing bats you’ve got a nice recipe for some runs being put up. The D-Backs especially should have some fun tonight. On top of that dirt low K rate for Nicolino is his 5.37 xFIP which is 8th worst in the league. I’m expecting something like 7-4 or 7-5 Arizona tonight.

Rangers/Mariners Ov 7.5 (-105): To me this line honestly feels like it’s about a run too low. We’ll start with Mariners starter Hisashi Iwakuma. In many regards Iwakuma is the same guy he’s always been, but there’s one glaring difference with him this season. His ground ball rate is down 10% from where it was in 2014 and 2015. Generally speaking more fly balls allowed means more damage allowed and that’s what’s happening with Iwakuma. He’s not horrible or anything but that 4.24 xFIP is a bit below average and he’s really battling right now. As rough as things have been for Iwakuma, they’ve been far worse for Rangers starter Derek Holland. Right now Holland has an xFIP of 5.38 which is 7th worst in baseball, his 4.98 K/9 is 8th worst in baseball, and his 37% ground ball rate is 16th worst in baseball. In short this guy is an absolute mess right now, and with Iwakuma struggling too I’ll gladly jump in on this over at only 7.5.