Pirates +110: I’m going to give it another go with the Pirates down in Miami tonight. It didn’t work out yesterday as their offense that normally bashes left handers had some trouble with Adam Conley, but I’ll test Wei Yen Chen to do shut them down too. As I mentioned in yesterdays write up the Pirates really do mash left handers and I’ll take my chances that two lefties don’t hold them in check back to back days. Chen is a good, but not great pitcher. There’s no denying he’s solid but this isn’t a guy who will be striking any fear into the Buccos lineup. On the other end Juan Nicasio and his 9 K/9 rate takes the mound for the Pirates. Nicasio, much like Chen is solid but certainly not a star by any stretch. He’s had some bad luck with a 16.7% HR/FB rate which has inflated his ERA a bit, his 3.97 xFIP however shows he’s been a pretty solid option this season.
Rays -117: Despite that ERA of 5.31 I’m still buying on Matt Moore. He’s got a nice K rate of 8.74 K/9 and a decent enough BB rate of 2.97 BB/9. What’s tripped Moore up is an unlucky .337 BABIP as well as a 16% HR/FB rate. His xFIP of 4.02 is far better than his ERA and shows just how unlucky he’s been. Today against the Twins is the perfect chance for him to get back on track. The Twins come into todays game with a wRC+ of 69 against lefties, which is 3rd worst in MLB. This is a lineup especially with Miguel Sano now on the shelf, that Moore should be able to carve right through. I’ve never been a big Kyle Gibson fan to begin with, and now if I can go against him in his first start off the DL it’s even better. Gibson has always been a very low K/9 guy, and his stuff is far from anything special. I don’t see the Rays having any trouble beating up on him a bit today.
1st 5 Innings D-Backs/Astros Un 4 (-115): Taking my chances here with what I think are still two very good pitchers that have suffered with some bad luck so far this season. Zack Greinke for starters has dealt with a .321 BABIP a 68% strand rate and a 13% HR/FB rate. All of which clearly worse than his career numbers and league averages for that matter. His xFIP of 3.58 is more than a full run lower than his 4.71 ERA. As always with Greinke is K rate is solid and his BB rate is very low. He should be just fine today, and moving forward this season. Dallas Keuchel has taken a lot of heat this year because of his 5.58 ERA, but a deeper look reveals a lot of bad luck for the 2015 Cy Young winner. He’s allowed a .327 BABIP, a 16.7% HR/FB rate and only has a 65.4% strand rate. All of which are very unlucky and unsustainable. His xFIP of 3.72 is nearly 2 full runs lower than his ERA and shows that while he isn’t 2015 Keuchel, he’s still pretty good. I think he does just fine here today, and would be looking to buy on him as the season moves along.