04
JUN
2016

MLB June 4th

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Phillies -105 & 1st 5 Innings Brewers/Phillies Un 4 (-115): Going to double dip here and hit Phillies with the 1st 5 under. Jeremy Hellickson has been awesome this year. His K rate of 9.19 K/BB is excellent as is his 1.98 BB/9 rate. His 3.38 xFIP is actually better than his 3.68 ERA, showing that absolutely nothing he’s been doing out there has been a product of luck. It’s about time we take this for what it is, right now Jeremy Hellickson is one of the best right handers in the NL. His opponent Junior Guerra isn’t a slouch by any extent either. While not quite as good as Hellickson, Guerra also is working on impressive K/9 and BB/9 rates at 8.92 and 2.97 respectively. His 3.82 xFIP while not great, is certainly impressive enough. This is the kind of game where I expect Guerra to be good and Hellickson to be even better. As far as the under goes it certainly doesn’t hurt that both of these teams struggle mightily against right handed pitching.

Indians -128 & 1st 5 Innings Royals/Indians Un 4.5 (-115): No Josh Tomlin isn’t going to wow you with his stuff. He isn’t going to blow people away, and he isn’t going to pile up K’s. What Tomlin does is pretty much walk nobody at all. His BB/9 rate is a minuscule 0.99 BB/9. He makes you earn everything you get off of him, and the lineup KC has been running out there lately doesn’t scare me in the least. Tomlin should be his usual self tonight, attacking the zone, letting his defense work for him. I’m not saying he’s going to be lights out, but something like 6 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K’s seems about right from him. Ian Kennedy is a different type of pitcher than Tomlin. He’s a high K and high BB guy right now. His 4.48 xFIP is nearly a run and a half higher than his 3.03 ERA showing he’s had quite a bit of luck early in the season. Kennedy is still a nice pitcher but here I think he takes a backseat to Tomlin.

Unfortunately I don’t have time for write ups on the rest today, but here is the remainder of the card…

Red Sox -122
Cardinals +101
Mariners -113
ML Par: Nats/Cubs/Dodgers +151

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