07
JUN
2016

MLB June 7th

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Mets +101 (Game 1 of DH): Steven Matz has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. He has a 2.60 ERA and a 3.30 xFIP which is one of the best marks in the league. Matz has put up a 8.62 K/9 rate to go with a 1.79 BB/9 rate. What’s also working for Matz is an improved ground ball rate that’s up to a very impressive 55.8%. There’s no way around it, Matz is the real deal. Jon Niese on the other hand is just another guy. He’s got a 4.36 ERA and a very similar 4.28 xFIP. Also hurting Niese is his very low 6.6 K/9 rate and a little too high 3.09 BB/9 rate. Across the board Niese is just simply mediocre at best, at this point he’s no where near the level of a guy like Matz and only laying 11 cents to get the far superior SP is good enough for me.

Rangers +102: I’m leading the charge on the Astros as much as anybody, I’m also leading the charge on the Dallas Keuchel isn’t washed up, that he’s mostly been unlucky campaign too. All that said however, this line just doesn’t make sense to me. The Rangers right now sit at 35-22, they are 22-9 at home, they are 7-0 this year against Houston, they are 20-6 against Houston in their last 26, yet are home dogs tonight? I honestly just don’t get it. Cole Hamels other than an increased BB rate has been the same old Hamels as always this year. He once again has a very nice K/9 rate at 9.39, and his ground ball rate is up to nearly 52%. He’s been very unlucky on the HR/FB front allowing nearly 25% of the fly balls he’s allowed to leave the park. That’s a number that should drop, and when it does the ERA will come with it. I mentioned Keuchel a bit earlier, his xFIP of 3.66 is nearly 2 full runs lower than his 5.50 ERA. He’s still good, and the oddsmakers know it, that’s why Houston is favored here. Don’t let that ERA fool you. That said, I still don’t think the ‘Stros deserve to be favored however. This truly is one of the weirder lines I’ve seen this year and I’ll admit I don’t fully understand it. Rangers for me though.

Blue Jays -127: By now you guys know that I’m big on Aaron Sanchez. The flame throwing right hander has now worked his ERA under 3, and his 3.29 xFIP is 9th best in all of baseball. This kid is already the real deal. He has a K/9 rate of 7.96 and his ground ball rate of 58.5% is 3rd best in baseball. Across the board this kid is showing that he has it all. While he’s not exactly a secret anymore, I still think he’s a bit underpriced here. Tonight he’ll be facing former Jays prospect Matt Boyd who will get a chance to see his old squad. Boyd is a decent enough young pitcher, but at this point he’s just not in Sanchez world. His stuff won’t wow you, he sits low 90’s with his fastball, his K rate isn’t very high, he doesn’t get nearly enough ground balls either. I don’t see the Jays having much trouble with him.

Nationals -132: I’m still waiting for Mat Latos to get absolutely destroyed by the regression train. On the surface with Latos you see a 6-1 record and a respectable enough 4.02 ERA. A deeper look however reveals a 5.29 xFIP which is 6th worst in baseball, and a 4.98 K/9 rate which is 5th worst in baseball. To put it frankly Latos sucks and it’s just a matter of time before that ERA heads for the moon. I think there’s an excellent chance the Nats rough him up big time tonight. I won’t deny that some regression is coming for Joe Ross too, but when it does he’ll still be far better than Latos. Ross isn’t going to be able to continue pitching to an ERA in the low 2’s, his BABIP, Strand Rate, and HR/FB rates are all too lucky. That said though, Ross is still a very solid young pitcher and right now he’s far better than Latos. On the whole the White Sox are really struggling and I see those struggles continuing here.

Brewers -121: I doubt many have noticed, but in his last 4 starts Zach Davies is starting to figure some things out. In those 4 starts Davies has put up a line of 25.1 IP, 17 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 24 K’s. Mixed in with his season stats those numbers can get lost in the wash, but lately he’s been very, very solid. Here I’m going to take a chance on him continuing his recent ways. Opposing him will be A’s rookie Sean Manaea who in his own right is starting to improve a bit. On the whole however I think Manaea is still too raw, he’s just learning the league and the A’s are bad enough that they can afford to just run him out there every 5th day and let him figure things out. He’ll be a good pitcher down the road, but he just isn’t there yet. Davies however is showing signs that he’s ready to start taking the next step here soon.

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