Rockies -119: I’m not going to do anything to defend Jorge De La Rosa, but if there was ever a chance for him to have a good outing it would be tonight. He’ll be facing the Braves who have a 71 wRC+ against left handed pitching, good enough for 2nd worst in all of baseball. Throwing for Atlanta is Lucas Harrell who has really had luck working for him in his 2 starts this year. Harrell has a 4.53 xFIP which is over 3 runs higher than his 1.32 ERA. That lucky ERA is mostly a result of his insanely lucky .194 BABIP. Yes the sample size is very small for Harrell but there’s enough there to know that some serious regression is coming. De La Rosa ironically enough have a 4.54 xFIP which is almost identical to that of Harrell. In my mind the SP’s in this game are roughly a wash. It’s the Braves inability to do anything with left handed pitching that will have me playing the Rockies.
D-Backs +106: Much like the Braves, the Dodgers are flat out horrid against left handed pitching. On the year the Dodgers are 28th in baseball with a 77 wRC+ against left handers. That’s bad news for them tonight as they face Patrick Corbin. Yes Corbin has been a bit shaky this year but there are a few signs that the 2nd half will be better. He has a 20% HR/FB rate so far this year and that should surely come down in the 2nd half, his strand rate of 68.8% should also be improved. I think against this Dodgers lineup that really struggles with lefties it could be a good chance for Corbin to start getting things on track.
Mariners -128: I’ve mentioned it a few times and it still holds true now, some serious regression should be coming for Doug Fister. On the year Fister has a 3.55 ERA but a 4.79 xFIP. What hurts that xFIP him is a very low K rate, a high BB rate, and a very lucky .254 BABIP. Those are things that should catch up to Fister in the 2nd half, and when they do that ERA is really going to rise. James Paxton on the other hand put up a 3.91 ERA in the first half and he should be even better in the 2nd half. Paxton has a high K rate, a decent enough BB rate, and a nice ground ball rate. What’s hurt the left hander is a very unlucky .390 BABIP, and an unlucky 68.9% strand rate. The signs are there that the 2nd half should be a very nice one for Paxton and I think he gets it going the right way tonight.
Padres +175: It’s never easy to go against a guy like Madison Bumgarner, but if you’re going to do it you might as well be getting +175 and doing it with the 2nd best offense in baseball against lefties. That’s what we have tonight with the Padres. A home team at +175 that absolutely murders left handed pitching. Is Andrew Cashner good? Of course not. Is Madison Bumgarner one of the best pitchers in the game? No question about it. That said I just can’t pass on this price with a team that just smokes lefties.
1st 5 Innings Marlins/Cardinals Un 4.5 (-120): I’m not exactly doing backflips about Wei Yin Chen or Jaime Garcia, but what we have here is two teams in the bottom half of the league against left handed pitching. The Marlins have a 94 wRC+ against lefties, while the Cardinals come in even lower with a 90 wRC+ against lefties. Those marks rank 19th and 21st in the league respectively. I think Chen and Garcia are respectable enough to keep this thing under control in the early innings.
1st 5 Innings Brewers/Reds Un 5 (+100): I’ll admit we’ve got two pretty mediocre pitchers doing battle here, but what we also have is 2 of the 6 worst offenses in baseball against right handed pitching. The Brewers rank 25th in wRC+ against righties while the Reds come in even worse at 29th in the league. Garza and Desclafani aren’t anything special, but I don’t think they’ll need to be in order to hold these lineups down through the first 5 innings.