28
JUL
2016

MLB July 28th

comment : 1

Hoping the good times continue today as this stretch to start the 2nd half has really been wild…

1st 5 Innings Rockies/Mets Un 4 (-120): I’ve gone over Tyler Anderson and the excellent start he’s had this season a few times already, but for those who don’t know it’s time to take notice. Anderson isn’t going to wow you with his stuff, but he’s a guy who just does it the right way. His K rate is respectable at 7.69 K/9, his BB rate is excellent at 1.88 BB/9, and his ground ball rate is excellent at 56.6%. With Anderson it’s really that simple. Get your share of K’s, don’t walk people, and get a ton of ground balls. I don’t care who you are, that recipe is going to play. Anderson has done it to a very solid 3.26 xFIP and I think he should fare well with the Mets this afternoon. Jake deGrom hasn’t been quite as dominant in 2016 but the guy is still pretty damn good. On the year he has a 2.73 ERA to go with a 3.27 xFIP. His K rate is high, his BB rate is low, and his ground ball rate is even up a few % from where it’s been in past years. The 6-5 W/L record won’t blow you away, but trust me when I tell you that he’s still one of the best right handed pitchers in the league.

1st 5 Innings Phillies/Braves Un 4 (-105): This play is less about the pitchers and more about the fact that we’ve got the two worst teams in baseball against right handed pitching. Literally the Phillies are 29th in baseball against right handers and the Braves are 30th. Aaron Nola I’ll admit has been a bit of a mess lately, but if there’s ever a matchup to get him back on track this is it. Despite those struggles however Nola still checks in 4th in MLB with a 2.99 xFIP. He also has an excellent K rate, excellent BB rate, and excellent ground ball percentage. I would expect the good Nola tonight against the horribly weak Braves lineup. Matt Wisler on the other hand is just a guy, I won’t pretend he’s anything special. All I’m banking on is the Phillies being so dreadful against right handers, even mediocre/below average ones like Wisler. I’ll dare these two weak hitting lineups to find their way to 5 before the 6th, I just don’t think they can do it.

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  1. Bryan

    Ypu have been on a killing spree. I always enjoy reading your thorough write ups as they show you know your stuff. One of the best out there. Keep up the good work