30
SEP
2016

College Football September 30th

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Already posted the Saturday card earlier this week, but after continuing to look at this game I’m going to hop in there with a Friday night play too. That’ll be an 11 play weekend for me in College making it the busiest of the weekend. Should be fun, here we go with the Friday play…

BYU (-3.5): I’ll admit I wasn’t very big on BYU coming into this season, and you could argue that based on their 1-3 start I’d have been correct in not expecting them to be very good. As weird as it sounds though, despite that 1-3 record, BYU is actually a little better than I thought they’d be.  Their 3 losses have come by a combined total of 7 points against 3 solid teams (Utah, UCLA, and West Virginia) and in those 3 games they’ve played pretty well. Toledo on the flip side is off to a nice 3-0 start with 3 blowout wins over 3 inferior teams. I had Toledo towards the top of the MAC in my preseason rankings, so to see them take care of 3 bad teams isn’t terribly surprising. Often times in these write ups I talk about over-reaction. Times where I feel oddsmakers over-react to a few games, and a line moves way more than where I had it before the season. In this case of this game I had BYU as a 10.5 point favorite when doing my pre-season numbers. Keep in mind that was 10.5 when I didn’t even think BYU was going to be that good. I mentioned despite that 1-3 record the Cougars in a strange way have exceeded my expectations. Toledo I’ll admit is better than I thought, so my line on this game certainly wouldn’t be the 10.5 I had it at in August, but it sure as hell wouldn’t be 3.5 either. My number on this game would be in the 6 to 6.5 range, so at only -3.5 I’ve gotta jump in on BYU. I like what the Cougs can do on the ground with Jamaal Williams, and for all Taysom Hill’s faults as a passer, his legs are enough to keep a defense on their toes. BYU will be by far the best defense Toledo has faced this year, and I think they’ll find it tougher to light up the scoreboard the way they’ve been doing in their first 3 games. I think BYU takes care of business here. 28-20 type of game sounds about right.

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