28
SEP
2016

NFL October 2nd

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NFL Season: 8-5, +2.5 Units
NFL Week 3: 3-2, +0.9 Units 

September treated me just fine at 61.54% winners using my heavily contrarian NFL capping style. Will look to keep things going as we move to October. Here we go…

Jaguars (+2.5): I’m going to (perhaps stubbornly) continue to try and buy low on the Jaguars. The Jags currently sit at 0-3 and the natives are starting to get restless. There are rumors that Gus Bradley’s job could be in jeopardy and the Blake Bortles fan club is losing members by the minute. Things haven’t worked out for RB Chris Ivory and a defense that was supposed to be full of young talent hasn’t lived up to expectations. It’s time to give up right? Time to the pull the plug and let the Jags set sail for that inevitable 4-12 season? I’m not quite ready to say that yet. This is your ultimate back to the wall game, and it comes against a Colts team that is very, very average. These are the kind of games the Jaguars need to find a way to win. I think they’ll do just that here.

Bears (+2.5): As far as buying low goes, you just don’t get lower than the Chicago Bears right now. Coming off another loss on Sunday the Bears now sit at 0-3 and a good argument could be made that they are the worst team in the NFL. That said, I’m not sure the Lions should be a 2.5 point road favorite over anyone right now. There were actually some signs of improvement in the 2nd half Sunday night for the Bears with Hoyer and company moving the ball fairly well. For as bad as the Bears are, two of their three losses have come on the road, and the one home loss was against an Eagles team that looks to be far better than any of us thought. I’m still not convinced this is a team that can’t even manage a home win against a bottom 10 team in the league, which is what I think the Lions are. I think they get off the mat here and find that first win of the season.

Buccaneers (+3): Here we’ve got your “WTF is going on with this line” game of the week. To most NFL fans at first glance of this line they’ll wonder what on earth is going on. How is Denver only a 3 point favorite? They won the Super Bowl last year, they are 3-0 this year, they have the best defense in the league, Trevor Siemian is good now, etc, etc. WHY IS THIS LINE ONLY 3 POINTS?! As of now it looks like 88% of bets are on the Broncos so not surprisingly the public is just eating this one up. One important thing to remember is how hard it is to win on the road in back to back weeks in the NFL. I pointed this out in Week 2 when the Packers went into Minnesota after a week one win over Jacksonville. The whole world was on Green Bay that night, just like the whole world will be on Denver Sunday. On the surface lines like this seem fishy, but there’s a reason for it. The Bucs have some nice young talent, Jameis Winston is on his way to being a top 10 QB in this league, and I know I’m repeating myself. IT’S SO HARD WINNING ROAD GAMES IN BACK TO BACK WEEKS IN THIS LEAGUE. I’ll challenge Trevor Siemian to do just that, you’ll have to excuse me if after one nice win in Cincy I’m not doing backflips about this guy. Winston and the Bucs will pull off what most would consider a big upset win, but for me it’ll be expected.

49ers (+3): The over-reaction train for the Dallas Cowboys has pulled out of the station and is moving at full speed right now. Wins over the Redskins, and the Bears and now people are acting like the boys are back. There’s even talk that Dak Prescott should continue to start when and if Tony Romo is able to return from injury? The guy/team is 2-1 with wins against a mediocre Redskins team, and a Bears that is possibly the worst in the league. Yet now Prescott is the man, and the team is good? Pardon me if I inject a dose of reality into the situation. On the flip side of this buy low, sell high, is the 49ers. Blaine Gabbart has been awful, Carlos Hyde is averaging under 4 yards a carry, they don’t have any WR’s anyone has even heard of, and they are seemingly at rock bottom. So the casual fan you again wonder, why the hell is this line only 3? Sure enough as of my typing this 72% of bets are on Dallas. This is exactly the kind of game that makes no sense until it’s over. The masses line up to bet Dallas and come 4th quarter are scratching their heads when somehow SF wins 24-21. It’s not an easy case to make on paper, but I think the Cowboys hype train comes off the tracks a bit this week and reality pops in.

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