04
OCT
2016

MLB October 4th

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I didn’t bet very much MLB in September, but overall the 2nd half of the season went pretty well. Still down on the year, but do have some very nice futures that could bring me back into the black by seasons end. Now that we’ve hit the playoffs I’ll be back to posting regular plays with write ups. Gotta love MLB playoffs, here we go…

Orioles (+138): Plain and simple here John Gibbons has made a mistake going with Marcus Stroman in this one game playoff instead of Francisco Liriano. JA Happ would have been the ideal guy to start this game, but he threw 103 pitches on Saturday so he’s obviously not available. Liriano however would be on 5 days rest, and he should’ve been the choice. Why you ask? Well it’s simple. The Orioles active roster has a 89 wRC+ against left handed, which is 24th in baseball. Against right handed pitching however, they have a wRC+ of 105 which is 6th best in baseball. In short, they hit righties very well and they really struggle with left handers. So the choice of Stroman instead of Liriano I don’t believe to be a wise one. In Stroman’s defense he did get better as the year went on and actually ended the year with a very solid 3.41 xFIP. He gets a lot of ground balls, he has a decent BB rate, and his K rate improved in the 2nd half. I’m not saying he’s garbage at all, I just feel based on the opponent that Liriano was the way to go. On the flip side we have Chris Tillman who is frankly pretty mediocre. If he gets into any trouble I expect the O’s to go to their excellent bullpen early. From that point they can piece things together and I’d expect even some of the other SP’s would be available for an inning or two if needed. In short I think the Blue Jays are rightfully favored, but I’d have them in the -115 to -120 range, so being able to get in on the O’s at +138 is plenty good enough for me.

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