NCAAF Week 12: 2-5, (28.57%) -3.5 Units
NCAAF Season: 45-43-3, (51.14%) -2.3 Units
After a shaky week 12 I’m now in the red for the first team all season. Need to close strong and get back in the black before the season ends. Feel good about bouncing back this week.
NC State (+11.5): Plenty of reason to expect a max effort showing from NC State this week. They are looking for revenge from last seasons loss to UNC, they are playing for bowl eligibility, and of course UNC is their biggest rival. On paper of course UNC is the better squad here but this feels a few points too high to me. I lined this game at 9.5 and feel the recent poor play of the Wold Pack have this line inflated a bit. Getting 11.5 points for a team with everything to play for is good enough for me.
Washington (-6): There really isn’t much of angle here as far as situation or motivation goes. Both teams have a ton to play for so each should bring a max effort showing. This one just comes down to Washington in my mind being the clearly better team. I’d have made this game 7.5 or 8 as I truly feel despite that egg Washington laid against USC that they are one of the best teams in the country. For most of the year the Huskies have been absolutely dominating opponents and I think they overwhelm their in state rivals here. I do like Washington State and they’ve had a nice season but I don’t think they are ready to hang with the big dogs like UW. Last weeks loss I believe served as a reality check and reminded us all that the Cougars while solid aren’t quite in that upper tier yet. I think Washington wins by double digits.
Michigan (+6.5): Obviously there’s no need to get into the importance of this game. Each team still has BIG 10 title hopes, National title hopes, not to mention arguably the best rivalry in college football. Each team will be bringing 110% to the table for this one. I just don’t think Ohio State is good enough to be laying nearly a TD against Harbaugh and company. I lined this game at Ohio State -4.5 so the 2 points is enough to get me involved. It looks like it’ll be John O’Korn at QB for Michigan on Saturday and that’s fine with me. Will Speight is a nice QB but lets not act like he’s some star. This isn’t Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield or Deshaun Watson. Him being act shouldn’t lead to a the sky is falling type reaction that some are giving it. If it indeed is O’Korn I think he can play well enough to keep this game close throughout and give the Wolverines a chance to win.
Iowa State (+7): I haven’t been sold on West Virginia all season and that certainly isn’t changing now. WVU was exposed last week getting blown out at home against Oklahoma and I think they might even lose again this week. Iowa State started the year 1-8 but has since won 2 straight including a 66-10 thrashing of Texas Tech last week. This is a team playing with a bit of confidence right now, and at home for senior day against what I think has been a fools gold WVU team all season it feels like a sneaky spot for an upset. West Virginia now has frankly nothing to play for. Their BIG 12 title hopes are gone and regardless of what happens Saturday they’ll just end up in some ho-hum bowl game. I suspect after that primetime home thrashing last week they might be feeling sorry for themselves a bit coming into this one. I already mentioned how Iowa State is probably feeling pretty good right about now. To me just give me the team that I think is going to care more about this game. Cyclones for me.
San Diego State (-11.5): Take out your frustration type of game on Senior day for SDSU. Last week they lost a 34-33 game at Wyoming on a failed two point conversion with no time left on the clock. Realistically their chances at the Cotton Bowl are now gone and they probably even have to play the MWC title game on the road now. Aside from that Wyoming game they had just beaten the hell out of all other conference opponents and I think that’s what they get back to on Saturday night. I expect Donnell Pumphrey to run wild after being bottled up last week for one of the worst games of his career, and I expect what has been an excellent defense all year to get back on track too. SDSU takes this one easily.
Florida State (-7): A very nice win for the Gators last week at LSU but I don’t think they have nearly enough firepower to hang with Dalvin Cook and Florida State. Cook is only a Junior but everyone knows he’s going pro after this season and I think he’s going to make a mark in his final home game. Yes Florida has a great run defense but that was the case last year too when Cook ran for 183 yards and two TD’s. At the end of the day I only see Florida finding their way to about 14 or 17 points and that shouldn’t be enough to keep them in this game. Noles win by double digits.
New Mexico (+3): Absolutely everything on the line for Wyoming in this one and frankly this isn’t a team that used to playing for much. They now have home wins over Boise State and SDSU under their belts, but if they can’t beat New Mexico on the road Saturday it’ll all be for nothing. Assuming a Boise State win earlier in the day over Air Force, this game will determine who faces SDSU in the MWC title game. With a win Wyoming would go, with a loss Boise State would slide in there and take their spot. A team like New Mexico is a nightmare to prepare for and deal with. They are the #1 rushing team in the nation at over 340 yards per game and they just keep coming at you for 60 minutes. Pressure can be a tough thing to deal with and with the entire weight of the world on their shoulders I’ve just got a feeling that the Cowboys are going to fall short. New Mexico finds a way to get it done.