NFL Season: 28-26-2, (51.85%) -0.6 Units
On a nice little 6-1-1 run in the NFL over my last 8 plays and now nearly back into the black for the season. Hopefully this will be the week where it happens. Here’s what I’ve got…
Jaguars (+3.5): It’s never easy to take a 2-9 team when only getting 3.5 points, but here I am doing it with the Jags. More than anything this is a Broncos fade as they travel east for an early start after a physically and mentally grueling game last week with Kansas City. Now I know Trevor Siemian is no stud but the fact is he beat out Paxton Lynch for a reason. Going to Lynch is a downgrade for a team that frankly isn’t very good offensively to begin with. The Jags don’t have much to play for right now so a home game against the defending Super Bowl champs and a chance to play spoiler is about as big as it’s going to get for them the rest of the season. Despite the bad record I expect the Jags to actually care about this one and put out a nice effort. I’ll take my chances that the hangover effect, the travel, the early start and the backup QB are enough to trip up the Broncos.
Texans (+6.5): Now I know the Texans aren’t very good, I’ve said so many times already this season and I still think the same way now. Luckily for them however I don’t think the Packers are any good either. One win over an Eagles team that’s only won twice since September and everyone seems ready to hop right back on that Packers bandwagon. 79% of bets are currently on the Pack and in the minds of most it seems all has been forgotten. Call me crazy, but a win over a team that’s fallen and can’t get up isn’t going to make me think the Pack has all of the sudden found it. I think this line should be 4 or 4.5 and we’ve got some severe over-reaction that the Packers MNF win going on here. For all of the Texans warts they do have a nice defense and a nice running attack. I think they can keep this game interesting and maybe even pull out a win. More than anything else I’m just fading the public who is I think foolishly paying a premium to take a pretty mediocre Green Bay team.
Bills (+3): I’m still not buying in on the Raiders at all. I don’t care what their record is I think they are about the 5th or 6th best team in the AFC. This line shows you oddsmakers feel the same way. A 6-5 Buffalo team comes 3000 miles west and is only a 3 point dog against a 9-2 team? Oddsmakers are basically saying a neutral field that these teams are a coin flip. While to most that’s a crazy thought, I still don’t think they’ve come far enough. On a neutral field I think Buffalo is better than Oakland so to be getting a full Field Goal against them on the road is good enough for me to make a play. In Oakland my line for this game was Raiders -1.5 so getting 3 is basically a no brainer play. I’ll give the Raiders credit for continuing to find ways to win coin flip games but there’s no way it should be able to last. I’m of the opinion this run ends sooner rather than later. Sooner as in, Sunday against the Bills.