NCAAF Season: 62-62-3, (50.00%) -6.2 Units
Final play of the season tonight (obviously) and it will decide if I finish above 50% or not. Unfortunately regardless of the outcome this season will end in the red. Started hot but cooled as the season went on. Will just try to make the best of tonight. Here we go….
Clemson (+6.5): I don’t like the fact that seemingly Clemson has become the “square side” here, but I just can’t pass up taking them. I really think some of the Tigers duds this year (NC State, Pitt, Troy) were due to the fact they had bigger fish to fry. I think this team knew they were insanely talented and that they had one eye on the College Football playoff all year. They knew they were good enough to get back, they wanted to get back and win, and in a way I think they almost treated parts of the regular season like it was just a formality. Something they just have to get through and finish before they can do what they really want, and that’s play in the playoff. Against Ohio State they finally flipped the switch and we all saw how good this team is. They beat the Buckeyes 31-0 in a game that you could argue wasn’t even that close. They did almost whatever they wanted offensively, and completely shut down the Ohio State offense holding them to 215 yards. On the other side we have Alabama and everyone knows how great they are. I won’t deny that their defense is off the charts good, no way around it. What I will say is that their offense severely lacks firepower. Jalen Hurts is still just a kid at 18 years old and pretty limited in what he can do in the passing game. They have a nice stable of RB’s but Clemson’s defense I think will be up to the task of keeping those guys in check. I suspect they’ll dare Hurts to beat them in the passing game, and frankly I just don’t think he’s up to the task. Clemson on the other hand I think will be able to throw the ball a bit. QB DeShaun Watson is excellent and has played in many big games over the past few years. He put on a show in this game last year against Bama and I think he wants another shot at them in the worst way. It also doesn’t hurt that he was Mike Williams to throw to, Williams in my opinion is the best and most explosive player on the field tonight. Not to mention probably the best WR in the nation. Overall I just see more balance with Clemson who can keep the Bama honest and force them to respect run and pass. While I don’t think Clemson respects Bama’s pass game, which will help them contain the Tide running attack. I’m not sure who wins tonight, but it’s a game I expect to come down to the final 5 minutes. In such a game I can’t resist taking 6.5 points.