NCAAB November: 41-32-1, (56.16%) +5.8 Units
NCAAB December: 31-48-1, (39.24%) -21.8 Units
NCAAB January: 45-51-1, (46.88%) -11.1 Units
NCAAB February: 53-47-2, (53.00%) +1.3 Units
A 2-1 night on Monday and now will look to finish the month strong with my Tuesday card. Here’s what I’ve got…
Rutgers (+6): It’s getting about time to just call it like it is with Maryland, they simply aren’t very good. They’ve now lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 7, and the days of over-achieving that lead to their 20-2 start are done. Tonight they get Rutgers on the road and at this point I’ll take 6 points with just about anyone at home against the Terps. Rutgers is the worst team in the BIG 10, that’s no secret, but there are a few things they do well that should help tonight. First and foremost this is an excellent offensive rebounding team, and against a Maryland team without much down low they should dominate on the glass. In their first meeting Rutgers was +11 in the rebounding battle and I think that gap could be even wider tonight. It’s also worth noting that Rutgers ranks 34th in effective FG% defensively and 27th defensively in blocked shot rate, they are also 46th best at defending the 3 ball only allowing opponents to shoot 32.2% from deep. In short however this play is mostly abut fading a Maryland team that I think is more likely to keep spiraling downwards than right the ship. Until I see them play a decent game they are probably on auto fade.
Duke (-6.5): A nice spot for Duke to get things back on track tonight. The Blue Devils have lost two straight and now head back home for a revenge game against FSU. Last month Duke lost by 16 in Tallahassee and tonight they’ll try to make things right. Normally the revenge angle would probably be enough to ensure we get a max effort showing from Duke, but you throw in the fact they’ve lost two straight and it seems a lock that they’ll come ready to play here. On the flip side we have a Florida State that’s only 1-5 in their last 6 conference road games. This Noles roster is dripping with talent, but I’m not crazy about Leonard Hamilton and on the road times have been tough. Feels like a double digit Duke win.
Wyoming (+7.5): Letdown spot for Colorado State as they come off a big last second win over SDSU on Saturday. SDSU isn’t what they’ve been in the last decade or so but in the MWC they’ve been bullying around everyone in that conference for so long that any win against them is still big. In fact after the win the fans actually stormed the court to celebrate. Colorado State has been playing with only 7 scholarship players and a game like that against SDSU is both mentally and physically taxing. Now a respectable Wyoming comes to town looking to play spoiler and to avenge a 5 point home loss to Colorado State just a few weeks ago. It’s been a fun ride for the Rams of late but I have my doubts as to how long they can keep doing this with a 7 man rotation. I’m not sure they lose tonight but I feel good about Wyoming hanging around throughout.
Have a few more but out of time for write ups….
Eastern Michigan (-2.5)
Lehigh +350 (To Win Patriot League Tournament)