02
AUG
2017

MLB July 24th

comment : 0

Yesterday: 2-3, -0.96 Units 
April: 62-49 +14.93 Units
May: 62-58-6, +2.26 Units
June: 55-58-3, -4.31 Units
July: 44-40-1, +4.97 Units 
Season: 223-205-10, +16.78 Units

Small losing day yesterday going 2-3 for -0.96 units. Now we enter the final week of July looking to close strong and make this a month that was worth while. Back at it with write ups today too. Here’s what I’ve got….

Red Sox/Mariners Ov 8 (-110): Two lefties on the mound tonight and two teams that hit left handed pitching well. The Red Sox have a 112 wRC+ against left handers which is 5th best in baseball, while the Mariners are 11th best in baseball with a 103 wRC+ against lefties. On the mound the Mariners will send their ace James Paxton and there’s no denying is a very solid talent. He’s got nasty stuff, misses a ton of bats, and no matter how you slice it is a damn good pitcher. All that said however facing the Red Sox lineup is not an easy task for any pitcher. This is a lineup that is very good at the top and pretty deep. They keep coming at you and are good at driving up pitch counts. A high K guy like Paxton can run up his pitch count and doesn’t usually go that deep in games. In fact this year in 16 starts he’s averaging about 5.8 Innings per start. If the Sox can get him out of there by the 6th and then get to work against the bullpen I like their chances to do some damage. For the Red Sox it’ll be Eduardo Rodriguez who much like Paxton misses bats and piles up a bunch of K’s. The issue for E-Rod is that he’s much worse on the road with a 4.33 ERA compared to his success at Fenway. I’m not saying either he or Paxton get rocked but these offenses are nothing to take lightly and I think we find our way to 6-4 or so tonight.

Marlins (+128): Martin Perez stinks, the Rangers can’t hit lefties and the Marlins are pretty solid against lefties. Really no reason for me not to take a shot with the Marlins as a road dog tonight. To start off we’ll look at Perez who as has been the case for his entire career still isn’t any good. His K’s are still far too low, his BB’s are still too high and now he’s no longer an elite ground ball guy. If nothing else at least in the past despite all his warts at least Perez was always up there with the league leaders in ground ball rate, that isn’t the case anymore. His GB rate has come down to a right around league average 45% and without that there’s really nothing for him to hang his hat on. The Marlins are 12th in baseball with a 102 wRC+ against lefties and this bodes as a very nice matchup for their offense. The Rangers offense on the other hand is 27th in baseball with an 84 wRC+ against left handers. Tonight they’ll face Marlins lefty Adam Conley who I’ll admit isn’t very good. To be honest he’s pretty bad, but if he had to pick any team and lineup to face this Rangers team would be near the top. I don’t think Conley is going to put up 6 shutout innings or anything but I do think he can at least control this offense and hold them to 3 or 4 through 6 innings. A line like that would likely be good enough to win, given what I’m expecting the Marlins to do to Perez.

Cardinals (-132): People fall in love with all the Rockies bloated and Coors Field aided offensive numbers, but you get this team away from Coors and it’s truly an awful offense. How awful you ask? Well as a team on the road they have an 84 wRC+ which is 2nd worst in baseball. On top of that as a team against right handed pitching they have an 82 wRC+ which is dead last in baseball. Sure enough tonight it’s the double whammy for them…. on the road, against a right hander. Tonight it’ll be Mike Leake throwing against them and Leake is one of the few low K guys in the league that I actually like. He’s been a low K guy his entire career yet still managed a career ERA of 3.94 and a career xFIP of 3.82, both of which are very respectable. Leake pitches to contact and gets a lot of ground balls and weak contact. He also doesn’t walk many hitters. So while he won’t wow you and blow you away with his stuff he’s crafty and smart enough to use what he has to get you out. Against a lineup as weak as this Rockies one is I think he’ll be just fine tonight. In fact a 7 inning start allowing only a run or two wouldn’t surprise me one bit. The Rockies will counter with Antonio Senzatela who is 10-3 but really not anywhere near as good as that record might lead you to believe. His ERA is 4.67 and his xFIP is right about the same. Like Leake he doesn’t get many K’s, but he does walk a bit too many and doesn’t get the amount of ground balls Leake does either. On top of that he’s actually facing a lineup that isn’t garbage. The Cardinals are 14th in the league against righties with a 100 wRC+. Now that isn’t anything terribly impressive, in fact it’s pretty much just mediocre. That said a mediocre offense is a hell of a lot more than you get from the road Rockies so in addition to an edge on the mound the Cards have an edge with the bats tonight too.

About the Author

Leave a Reply

*

captcha *