07
SEP
2017

NCAAF Week 2

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NCAAF Season: 1-3, (25.00%) -2.3 Units
NCAAF Last Week: 0-3, (0.00%) -3.3 Units

Swung and missed on all 3 plays last week. Somehow Indiana blew a cover on Thursday night and then followed it up with misses on Colorado State and Florida State to finish the weekend. I feel very strongly about this card and my chances to rebound here in Week 2 though. Here’s what I’ve got….

Hawaii (+23.5): Probably a bit of a letdown spot here for UCLA coming off that amazing comeback win against Texas A&M. If you somehow missed it UCLA was down 44-10 in the 3rd Quarter and then ripped off 35 straight points to win the game 45-44. It’s not exactly easy to follow up such an emotional game against a team like Hawaii. For many of these players at UCLA that game against Texas A&M falls into the stories you tell your grand kids category. It’s a story that will never get an old and a game they’ll never forget. Now they can beat Hawaii on talent alone but I don’t think they’ll be where they need to be mentally to win this game by more than 23. Now Hawaii of course is nothing special but if UCLA is still doing victory laps from Sunday huge win the Rainbow Warriors have enough offense to at least hang around and stay within this number. QB Dru Brown is steadily improving and RB Diocemy Saint Juste is coming off a 1000 yard rushing season last year and seems poised to put up another one this season.

Fresno State (+44): It’s never easy jumping in front of Alabama but covering 44 points is a lot to ask for coming off as big a win as they just had last week. The Tide as most of you I’m sure know beat FSU 24-7 last week in Atlanta in what was maybe the biggest Week 1 College Football game we’ve had in over a decade. Per usual Alabama’s defense was excellent holding FSU to 250 total yards but we can’t ignore the fact the offense only generated 269 total yards of their own. QB Jalen Hurts had a 53 yard TD pass to Cam Ridley and even with that still only found his way to 96 passing yards on the night. Take away that pass to Ridley and he had 43 passing yards on his other 17 attempts, which is barely 3 yards per attempt. Say all the great things about Alabama that you want, but there’s no denying they have a major issue when it comes to passing the ball. Now the obvious reaction here is “Well David, Florida State’s defense is far better than what Bama will see against Fresno State.” Of course that’s true but even if Fresno puts up lets say 10 points then we’re already looking at Bama needing 55 points to cover. I’m just not sold on this offense and if I can start the game with 44 points in my pocket I’ll do it.

Florida State (-34.5): This feels like a pretty typical take out your frustration kind of spot for FSU here. Coming off that 24-7 loss to Bama and losing their starting QB for the year has probably got the Noles pretty pissed off right about now. In at QB for FSU now will step Freshman James Blackmon and this is the perfect kind of game for him to get his feet wet. He’s a dual threat QB that steps into a pretty nice spot. There’s no denying he isn’t going to step in and right away become Deondre Francois but there’s still a ton of talent around him and back in Tallahassee with a chip on their shoulders I think this one probably gets out of hand. UL Monroe is coming in off a 37-29 loss at Memphis in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicates. ULM was down 37-14 going into 4th before getting a few TD’s in garbage time to make the final look more respectable than it really was. This also isn’t the kind of game where once FSU gets a big lead that they’ll call the dogs off. They need and want to prepare Blackmon for a full season as the new starter and he needs all the game reps he can get. The Noles could go full throttle nearly wire to wire and really lay it on in this on.

Clemson (-5): I’ll start this write up by saying what I’m not saying…  Kelly Bryant is not DeShaun Watson. Let’s just get that out of the way now. Watson had a brilliant career at Clemson and topped it off with a national title last season. What I will say however is the drop off between Watson and Bryant probably isn’t as wide as many think. Bryant is an extremely talented QB who while not at Watson level yet is one hell of a dual threat QB. He’s big, strong, fast, with a big arm and tons of talent. In their opener against Kent State (I know, I know, just Kent State) he went nuts and basically was able to do whatever he wanted be it rushing or passing. Watson is gone but the overall level of talent on this Clemson team is still very, very high. Against Kent State the Tigers outgained them in total yards 665-120. I don’t care what you say about Kent State but that’s still an FBS team and Clemson outgained them at nearly a 6:1 ratio. That’s flat out absurd. On the other end Auburn steps in with new QB Jarrett Stidham who is a transfer from Baylor. Last week Auburn cleaned up on Georgia Southern and in 2015 Stidham played against BIG-12 defenses where as we all know defense is damn near non existent. To say Stidham has never seen a defense like what he’ll see against Clemson is beyond being an understatement. The level of speed and talent he’ll see on that Clemson defense won’t even be in the ballpark of anything he saw in Week 1 or what he saw at Baylor. Now before you try and turn that argument around and say you could make the same argument against Kelly Bryant, keep in mind that at minimum at least Bryant has seen one of the best defenses in the nation in practice since arriving at Clemson last season. I made this line 7 personally so at 5 I’m in on the defending champs.

North Carolina (+9.5): UNC is coming off a disappointing loss at home to Cal last week to open their season. It was a shaky performance from them as they lost at home as a double digit favorite but I think the early line movement on this game is a bit much. After a loss like that you can expect a max effort type of showing from the Heels this week and that, plus being at home, and getting 9.5 points is enough for me to make a play here. We all saw Louisville come back to earth as the season went on last season and sure enough here in Week 1 this year they actually trailed in the 4th quarter against Purdue before pulling out a narrow road win. I’m not going to say Louisville is done or that they are frauds, but I can’t see them as 9.5 points better than UNC in Chapel Hill. That line would reflect that they are roughly 13 points better on a neutral field and I simply don’t agree with that. I think the opener of 6 here was where it should be but I disagree with the movement up to 9.5 and it’s put it in range where I won’t pass it up.

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