07
SEP
2018

NFL Week 1 Plays

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The new season gets going this weekend and I’m ready to go. As you all know I love my college hoops and MLB, but the start of football season always gets me fired up. Hopefully have a solid season and make some money for myself and whoever ends up deciding to tail. Here’s what I’ll be on for week 1….

Broncos (-3): A lot to dive into with this game. We’ll start on the Broncos side where they welcome in Case Keenum at QB over the mess they had last year of Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler and Trevor Siemian. Keenum is by no means a superstar but he’s a competent, respectable starting NFL quarterback. Simply being mediocre gives the Broncos a massive upgrade over the garbage they were running out there last year. It’s not about how good Keenum is, it’s just about how freaking awful those other 3 guys were. Denver still has plenty of talent on the defensive side and I see them being an above average unit on that side of the ball. For Seattle this honestly looks like a 3-13 team if they didn’t have Russell Wilson. The roster is short on talent pretty much across the board. First round pick Rashaad Penny came into camp overweight, #1 WR Doug Baldwin is playing hurt, and overall this could be the least talented roster in the NFL. Wilson is great but he’s only one man and only capable of so much. My line for this game is 4.5 so pushing past the key numbers of 3 and 4 is enough for me to be able to justify a play. I think Keenum can make enough plays to move the chains and keep drives alive and I’m intrigued by Freeman and RB now for the Broncos. I’m not expecting Seattle to do much at all on the ground with Chris Carson now the starter. Wilson is going to have to do it all on his own and this Denver defense is too tough to let him pull one out just about single handedly. I’d be looking for something along the lines of 24-17 Broncos.

Chargers (-3.5): There’s a lot of buzz around the cannon like right arm of new Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes but I also think there could be some growing pains for him too. Us college fans remember Mahomes putting up video game like numbers in his time at Texas Tech and now after one year on the bench learning he’s ready to step into the pilots seat. Mahomes has incredible upside, but with it a lot of volatility. It’s important to remember the guy he’s replacing. Alex Smith wouldn’t wow you with his play, but the guy was smart, steady, and rock solid. He made smart decisions almost all the time and very rarely turned the ball over or made negative impact plays. The Chiefs made the choice to risk the downside of Mahomes for the plus upside. Higher ceiling, lower floor is the best way to put it. They’ll be some very high, highs but I assume some very low, lows. Smith was more of a level all the way throughout the game kind of guy. On the other side we have the Chargers who many (myself included) think have one of the most talented rosters in the league. This team is stacked on both sides of the ball and should be lined up for a nice season. Rivers is back at QB, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen are back at RB and WR and the skill positions are pretty well taken care of for the Bolts. Defensively they have the unmatched pass rush duo of Bosa and Ingram and what’s looking like an elite secondary to go with it. Just loads of talent all over the place for the Chargers and I’m very bullish on them this year. It does now look like Bosa’s status is up in the air but I’m hoping he’ll be able to tough it out and play, even if not I still think this line is short. I can see a few Mahomes INT’s in his first career start and a 31-20 Chargers win.

Summary:

Broncos (-3)
Chargers (-3.5)

Just those two for week 1. It’s a long season and no need to get crazy right off the bat. Will almost definitely have a larger card on week 2 with overreactions from what we see in week 1.

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