06
NOV
2018

NCAAB Plays for 11/6

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Back at it for another season and as the college hoops junky that I am, I couldn’t be happier. Last year was my best season since I began posting my picks on Twitter as I went 171-133-5 for 56.25% winners. That’s going be tough to duplicate but I’m up to the challenge and will give it my best. Here’s what I’m going with to start off the 2018-2019 season…

Wofford (+10.5): I realize Wofford isn’t the kind of team that most people know much, or frankly anything about, but I think they are in line for a very nice season. I rate them along with UNC Greensboro as the class of the Southern conference mainly due to the fact they bring everyone back. The best player on the team is Magee who is back after a monster junior year and I think could be one of the best mid major conference guards in the nation. Also back are the other 4 starters on the team and that gives them a luxury most teams only dream of… all 5 of their starting lineup is back. This is a team that won 21 games last year and I think should be able to top that number this season. They have their flaws on the defensive end and I won’t deny that, but what they can do is shoot the hell out of the basketball. Last year they were 24th in effective FG%, 9th in 3 point %, and 13th in FT%. Their plan will be to slow this game down and keep it at a tempo that North Carolina doesn’t want to play at. The Heels want to get out in transition, run, and use the edge they have with what’s clearly the more athletic roster. The Terriers will force UNC to defend and they’ll use a good chunk of the shot clock unless there is a wide open shot they can’t pass up. Last year their average possession length of 18.3 seconds was 280th in the nation. Per game they averaged about 66 possessions per game and while that number probably isn’t realistic against the Heels I do think they can keep it to 70-72 possessions or so. As far as the on the floor talent goes it’s business as usual for Carolina. Elite talent all over the place and they figure to be in the mix come late March. This game however is far trickier than I assume most people realize. Wofford is very well coached, very disciplined, smart, and with upperclassman throughout the roster they have a ton of experience. The elephant in the room is of course that this is a revenge game for UNC. Wofford went into Chapel Hill last year and beat the Heels 79-75 and not so surprisingly were led by Magee who went for 27 points in 39 turnover free minutes. If these Wofford players weren’t intimidated last year on the road against UNC, you know damn well they won’t be rattled by facing them at home. I’m not quite ready to call for another outright win this time around, but I do expect them to hang around throughout.

Louisiana Tech (+9): I don’t want to be overly critical of Wichita State but there’s no point in pulling any punches here, this could be the worst team they’ve had in a decade. Marshall has built a power house at Wichita but the talent level this year simply just isn’t where it’s been in the past. To say they lost a lot from last years roster would be an understatement. They lost 6 seniors to graduation and it doesn’t end there. They also lost Austin Reaves who transferred to Oklahoma and Landry Shamet who left school early to head for the NBA. They return about as little production from last years roster as any team in the country. Now the challenge for Marshall will be to break in what’s basically an entirely new squad. He’s an excellent coach and I think he can still get them to flirt with 20 wins or so, but the 28.6 wins they’ve averaged the last 9 seasons is probably just a pipe dream. On the other side it’s pretty much the polar opposite for Louisiana Tech. They lost Boykins who I’ll admit was their best player, but aside from him everyone is back. So early in the season I tend to give an edge to teams that have a roster that has played together in the past. Given everything I mentioned above Louisiana Tech has a massive advantage in that regard. The Boykins loss hurts but there is still plenty to feel good about from the Bulldogs perspective. Style wise this is a team that shoots the 3 well, and shoots it often. The Boykins loss will hurt on that front, but guys like Jean, Bracey and Duruji all figure to be 40% or better from beyond the arc. I honestly think this line is a bit inflated just because of the reputation Wichita State has built for itself. If this was another mid major team with the exact same roster but not the Shockers track record I believe the line would be a few points lower. This team has been pumping out 25 to 30 wins a year for nearly a decade and if Marshall can find a way to pull that off this year he’ll have done an amazing job. As far as this game specifically goes the Shockers will be happy enough to just begin the rebuilding process and get a win. To do it by more than 10.5 in my opinion is too much to ask.

Wyoming (-6): You wouldn’t think Wyoming has one of the best home court advantages in the nation. Yes you read that right… the Wyoming Cowboys have one of the best home court edges in the nation. First and foremost you have to deal with playing at 7200 feet elevation. That’s the highest elevation of any court in D1 basketball. We’re talking 353 division 1 teams and Wyoming plays at a higher elevation than any of them. Edwards has taken over and been smart enough to use that to their advantage by ramping up the tempo. They’ve ranked in the top 15 in adjusted tempo the last two seasons and I think they will step things up even more this season. Style wise this is about as bad of a matchup as UCSB could hope for. They prefer to play a slow it down style as they were 250th in adjusted tempo last season. They’ll do what they can to try and slow the pace in this one, but Wyoming is going to try and get this thing at warp speed. The combination of tempo plus altitude is a lot to overcome and the Gauchos should really have their hands full. UCSB won 23 games last year but 80% of their starting lineup from that team is gone and while I won’t say the cupboard is completely bare, the talent level is down quite a bit from that squad. On the other side it’s fair to point out Wyoming also lost a ton of production from last year but with James and Kelley back they do at least return two key contributors. It’s also worth noting that the Cowboys are actually a pretty good defensive team. Often times with teams that play at extremely fast tempos you assume they just don’t care about playing defense, that isn’t the case here. Last year Wyoming ranked 92nd in defensive efficiency and while that doesn’t sound impressive you have to keep in mind that was 92nd out of 351 D1 teams. In general I don’t think very highly of UCSB this year to begin with and when you factor in all the issues I already mentioned I feel like this is a really rough game for them to open the season. Wyoming might really open this thing up and a win by 15 to 20 points wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Summary: 

Wofford (+10.5)
Louisiana Tech (+9)
Wyoming (-6)

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