20
DEC
2018

NCAAB Plays for 12/20

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Texas Tech (+10): This play isn’t to pick on Duke whatsoever. In fact I’ll start off by stating that I currently have Duke ranked #1 in my personal power ratings. So please no “what’s the problem with Duke?” questions. The answer is nothing. They are excellent and should make a deep run in March. Tonight’s play is more a credit to Texas Tech and the challenge I think they present this loaded Blue Devils roster. Before we get to the Red Raiders we’ll hit on Duke quickly. It took coach K a little longer than some to come around to the “one and done” players, but he’s certainly on board now. The top 4 players on the Duke roster are all likely one and done Freshman and arguably the best group of 4 in the nation. I’m of course talking about Barrett, Williamson, Reddish, and Jones. They have elite size, length, talent, etc and are top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. I could go on and on but I’d be beating a dead horse, just to keep this simple let’s just say they are good. Very good. Now we move over to Texas Tech who might be more equipped to give Duke trouble than any other team in the nation. Check out some of these defensive numbers that Beard’s team has put up. #1 in overall defensive efficiency, #1 in FG% defense, #1 in 2 point % defense, #3 in 3 point % defense, and #6 in forced turnover rate. In other words nothing easy comes against them at all. They force a ton of turnovers and most of the looks you get come with a hand in your face and are low percentage attempts. Their biggest challenge this year came against Nebraska (who I have power rated 17th in the nation) and they handled them 70-52 on a neutral court. That Nebraska team is currently 16th in the nation in offensive efficiency and Texas Tech held them to 0.79 PPP which is just absurdly impressive. With the defense being as elite as it is, it would be easy to overlook the offense which is pretty damn good too. Offensively the Red Raiders are 44th in efficiency and 24th in effective FG%. They can shoot the 3, they score a ton inside, and have some star power of their own with Culver who has turned himself into one of the better players in the nation. He’s averaging 19 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, and doing so on 58% from the field and 45% from 3 point land. At the end of the day though this comes back to defense. That group of Duke Freshman is incredible but the truth is those kids have never seen a defense like this. Not in high school, not in AAU, and not so far in college. I do think Duke is the better team, but not 10 points better on neutral court. This one should come right down to the wire.

Long Beach State (-4.5): It’s been a rough start for the 49ers but I think they get back on track with a home win tonight. First of all before you judge them too harshly for being 3-9, let’s keep in mind they’ve played the 6th toughest schedule in the nation. They’ve already played against UCLA, Arizona State, Mississippi State, Oregon State, San Diego, and Fresno State. All of those teams currently are ranked in the top 75 of my power rankings and playing opponents that good helps quite a bit when you scale the level of opponent back down. Against Pepperdine that’s what they have, an opponent that’s not only at their level, but below it. The Waves are off to a 6-6 start but in contrast to that stacked Long Beach State schedule, Pepperdine has played the 317th toughest schedule in the nation. They’ve only played one team (Oregon State) that is even remotely good and sure enough they lost that game by 15. The rest of their schedule has been a cake walk, so notching 6 wins in such games isn’t really doing much to impress me. Offensively they are 200th in efficiency, and defensively they are even worse at 234th. On top of that is the fact they are very undersized and not so surprisingly have big time issues rebounding the ball. Pace wise this game figures to be a nice match. Under Monson LBSU is playing at a brisk pace as usual, and now with Romar at the helm of course Pepperdine is running too. Under Wilson the last two years the team was not only horrible, but also very boring to watch. This year with Romar in there they’ll be bad again, but at least now they should be entertaining. In this game in particular it should be the massive size edge the 49ers have that really pays off. Edwards is still out of the lineup for Pepperdine and at only 6’6″ he was their leading rebounder. With him out what was already a weakness before has gotten even worse. They are only 290th in the nation in average height and the rebounding numbers are playing out as expected. they are 319th in offensive rebounding and 250th in defensive rebounding. There’s enough here for me to play LBSU and I think they could be looking at 15-20 point win. 

Summary: 

Texas Tech (+10)

Long Beach State (-4.5)

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