02
JAN
2019

NCAAB Plays for 1/2

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Nebraska (+2): I’ve mentioned a few times over the last month or so how high I am on this Nebraska team. They are currently ranked 24th in the polls, Ken Pom has them 15th, and I’m even higher than that as my power rankings have them at #11. There’s not much at all about this team that I don’t like. I think Miles is underrated as a coach, and this year he has an excellent roster to work with. This team is 14th in offensive efficiency, and 29th in defensive efficiency. They can shoot it from 2, they can shoot it from 3, they are good at the FT line, they don’t turn the ball over much, on and on I could go. Elite isn’t a word a throw around often and while I’m not quite ready to call this offense elite, they are very close to that level. It also doesn’t hurt that they have a ton of experience. Watson, Copeland, and Palmer are all seniors and Roby is a junior. These kids have played in big games and seen it all by this point. That foursome doesn’t even mention Allen who has taken a big jump from his Freshman to his Sophomore year. He actually leads the team in offensive efficiency rating and he’s paying rewarding Miles faith in him as his minutes have nearly tripled from a season ago. I’ll admit the bench leaves a little to be desired, but that starting 5 is one of the best you’re going to find in the nation. On the other side we have Maryland who is certainly a good team and probably will make the tournament. I however just can’t agree with them being favored over the Cornhuskers even with the game in College Park. This play isn’t really a fade of Maryland or meant to pick on them at all. I rate them just barely outside my top 30 overall and expect a strong season from the Terps. It simply boils down to the fact there are only about 8-10 teams that I wouldn’t take a shot with Nebraska +2 against and Maryland isn’t part of that group.

Evansville (+2.5): Drake has won 10 of their last 11 and is off to an 11-2 start as we move into 2019. 11-2 is impressive and I won’t take that away from them, but I also don’t think it’s something they can sustain. McGlynn has made a big jump in his senior year and the trio of him plus fellow seniors Norton and Ellingson are what leads this team. That trio itself is solid and covers up the rest of the roster which frankly just isn’t very good. They are 318th in the nation in average height, yet somehow shooting 59% from 2 point range which is 5th best in the nation. It’s beyond bizarre that a team this small is doing this well inside and I don’t think there’s anyway that it’ll last. Granted a bit of a different roster but last year they were also among the smallest teams in the nation and they were 233rd in the nation in 2 point %. I’m not saying they’ll revert back quite that far here this season, but the point is it’s an unsustainable clip for the roster they have. Over on the Evansville side it’s all about home or road. They are 6-7 overall and it shakes out like this… 6-1 at home, 0-6 on the road. The good news for them tonight is they are at home in the Ford Center. Tempo wise these teams are very similar so on that front it’s pretty straight forward. Both teams want to get up and down the court and neither will object to the other speeding things up. McCarty is now in at head coach yet the team remains similar to last season in that defense is their strength. Offense has admittedly been touch and go for the Aces, but the defense while not to last years level has been better than D1 average and I’m confident in their ability to keep the Drake offense under control. Typically they have trouble on the glass but tonight will be a rare case where the height advantage is actually in their favor. Hall is a very athletic 6’7″ and is averaging over 8 boards a game, tonight feels like the kind of game he could snag 10-15 of ’em. This game opened at PK and at that number it wouldn’t have been one that I got involved with. Now however at 2.5 it’s to a point where I’m comfortable making a play with the Aces at home.

Summary:

Evansville (+2.5) 

Nebraska (+2)

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