22
JAN
2019

NCAAB Plays for 1/22

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I started off January red hot but the last handful of days or so I’ve hit a bit of a cold spell. Nothing out of the ordinary though as over the course of a full season it’s completely unavoidable to have some snags along the way. Just don’t get too high with the highs or too low with the lows. I’ll keep grinding along and doing my thing. Here’s what I have for tonight….

Akron (-6): Many of you may have noticed I’ve been fading Central Michigan quite a bit lately and that continues today. The Chippewas are still 14-4 but have lost 2 of their last 3 and I think that’s only the beginning of what will be a rough rest of the season for them. I don’t want to totally sell short that 14-4 record but the truth is much of it is due to a horribly weak schedule. They played the 341st toughest non conference schedule in the country and I expect they’ll end up under .500 in MAC play. They are very undersized, they get next to nothing from their bench, and they are well below average defensively. I often use the term “fools gold” when describing teams and Central Michigan might be the biggest fools gold team in the nation. That 14-4 record probably leads many to think they are far, far better than they really are. Conversely we have Akron who despite just a 10-8 record I have power rated pretty clearly above CMU. The offense for the Zips I’ll admit has been shaky but it’s on the defensive end where they enjoy their success. As a team they are 57th (keep in mind that’s out of 353 D1 teams) in efficiency and going down the list they are well above average in just about every defensive category. Also like most teams they do their best work at home where they are 8-1 so far this season. The game plan for the Zips should be fairly simple, they’ll want to keep the pace slow and challenge the Chippewas offense to be able to score on them in the half court. Pace will be a key factor in this game as the contrast in styles is quite extreme. CMU plays at the 57th fastest pace in the nation, while Akron checks in at 315th. More than anything else I just don’t trust what I view as a fraudulent CMU team to be able to go on the road and succeed against a strong defensive team at a slow pace. Throw in the fact I mentioned earlier about the Zips being 8-1 at home and I see this one as a double digit win for Akron.

Northern Illinois (+8): We’ll stay in the MAC for my other play tonight as I’ll take NIU as a home dog against Buffalo. We’ll start on the Buffalo side as right now they are getting a ton of attention, and rightfully so. They are one of the best mid major teams in the nation and have worked their way inside the top 15 in the polls. I don’t rank them that highly in my power rankings (I currently have them 22nd) but either way the point is the same, this is a damn good team. This play isn’t about picking on them or acting like they aren’t solid, I’m just higher on this Northern Illinois squad than oddsmakers seem to be. As weird as it might sound NIU is actually very, very good offensively. As a team they rank 36th in offensive efficiency, 20th in effective FG%, 17th in 3 point %, 61st in 2 point % and do it all in a very balanced manner. You’d think at 39% from 3 point land they’d just be bombing 3’s all night, but the truth is they score over 56% of their points from 2 point land and that ranks 20th in the nation. Point being they can beat you from inside or outside and to put it simply the offense is truly a handful to deal with. It all starts with German who has turned himself into not only one of the best guards in the MAC, but one of the best mid-major level guards in the country. He’s averaging 21 points and doing it on over 51% from the field and nearly 44% from 3. He’s extremely efficient, he can get to the hoop and if you sag off to stop the drive he’s more than happy to take the 3. For as good as German is there is more than just him on this squad though. Bradley and Thorpe are also working on very nice seasons and in fact the top 5 scorers on this team all are shooting above 50% from the field. This game is basically the super bowl of Northern Illinois’s season. As a MAC team it’s incredibly rare that they get a team ranked as high as Buffalo is coming to town. Now the Huskies aren’t going to make the tournament or anything so this is a highlight it, bold it, circle it, kind of game for them. We should be looking at a max effort showing from them and with the amount of offensive fire power they have I think they can hang around and keep it interesting.

Summary:

Akron (-6) 

Northern Illinois (+8)

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