29
JAN
2019

NCAAB Plays for 1/29

comment : Off

Haven’t had time for write ups the last few days so it’s nice to be able to get these posted for you guys today. This is what I’ve got for Tuesday….

Miami Ohio (+2.5): The rest of the MAC better not look too closely in the rear view mirror because here comes Miami Ohio. The Redhawks started out conference play 0-4 but have since won 3 straight and are now playing some pretty solid basketball. Tonight they should have plenty of motivation as they look to avenge a loss they had at Toledo two weeks ago. Toledo took control of that game with their defense as they held Miami Ohio to just 0.91 PPP. In that game Sibande went off for 26 but nobody else could really find their way and get anything going to help him. Toledo is a better than average defensive team but I think the chances of them holding the Redhawks to 0.91 PPP are quite slim. Down the roster Miami Ohio is actually a very efficient offensive team. They currently rank 82nd in overall efficiency on the offensive end and please keep in mind that’s out of 353 D1 teams. As mentioned earlier it was really on Sibande who showed up in the opener but guys like Brown, Ringo, Bowman, Adaway are all solid offensive players didn’t show up. If even just a few from that group play to their normal level tonight at home you’ll see a completely different Miami Ohio team than what we did two weeks ago at Toledo. The Rockets are off to a 16-4 start but let’s keep in mind that most of that is due to a 12-1 record in non conference play against the 312nd toughest non conference schedule in the nation. They love to shoot 3’s and even their biggest players (Knapke and Navigato) combine for about 9 3 point attempts a game. Both are tricky matchups but this is where at athletic big man like Bowman is nice because he can go out on the perimeter and hang with those two. Another matchup to keep an eye on is Ringo at the point against Jackson. Ringo has some length on him and is one of the more under-rated perimeter defenders in the nation. He averages nearly 3 steals a game and is a complete pain in the ass to deal with it you are a ball handler. If he can frustrate Jackson that goes a long way towards throwing this offense off balance. Surprisingly Ringo had no steals in that game a few weeks ago and you know he’s going to come out fired up for another shot. Ultimately I think Miami Ohio grinds down the pace of this game and if they get any sort of offensive regression back to what they typically are they should be right in this game until the end.

Eastern Michigan (+3): Central Michigan has now lost 3 straight as they continue to work their way back towards reality. CMU started the year 14-3 but did so mostly by beefing up on one of the softest schedules in the nation. I still think this is a team that struggles to even find their way to .500 in MAC play and I’m perfectly comfortable fading them again here. Unlike CMU who has played that cupcake schedule, Eastern Michigan has played the 17th toughest schedule in the nation. They’ve already played 9 games against teams that are power rated inside my top 105. So while on the surface a 9-11 record doesn’t do much to impress it has quite a bit to do with the high level of competition they’ve played. Style wise for EMU it’s going to be as slow and miserable of a pace as they can possibly get. Long possessions offensively, long possessions defensively, and a lot of deep shot clocks. CMU is the polar opposite as they play much faster than the D1 average in pace. Style wise this is the last kind of team they want to see. For the most part Murphy will have the Eagles sit back in that zone and they’ll challenge CMU to nail 3’s. They are a decent 3 point shooting team but not one that really scares you with what they do from deep. DiLeo can fill it up, but outside of him nobody on the team is even averaging 2 makes per game. If Central Michigan isn’t knocking down 3’s it’s going to be a big problem as they are going to be pretty well overmatched inside. In terms of average height EMU is 39th in D1 and CMU is 288th. With Minnie, Toure and Thompson the Eagles have 3 players (all who play big minutes) that are 6’9″ or taller. For CMU their tallest player who actually sees decent minutes is DiLeo at 6’7″ and he’s someone who prefers to play on the perimeter. I have these teams rated nearly dead even and getting 3 points even on the road with Eastern Michigan is something I can’t pass up. I’ll trust that the slow pace and dominating inside is going to be enough for EMU to hang in this game throughout and very possibly win outright.

Texas (-1.5): It’s been a weird season for Texas to this point as they’ve already shown us a bit of everything. At 11-9 they’ve lost some games they shouldn’t have and also won some games we wouldn’t have expected. There have been some high highs and low lows but tonight I think we see a solid showing. Shaka Smart has taken some heat lately but he’s proven time and time again he can get his teams ready to play and win big games. Already this season the Horns have wins over Arkansas, North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas State and Oklahoma. Just a few weeks ago in Lawrence they took the Jayhawks right to the wire losing by only 2. That’s obviously a frustrating loss to take but it let them know they are capable of playing with Kansas. While consistency has certainly been an issue for the Horns, lack of talent isn’t an issue at all. Roach, Coleman and Ramey handle most of the work in the backcourt and that’s a solid trio. Roach can play anywhere 1-3 and while he’s probably their best player it’s Hayes that I’m keeping my eye on tonight. Hayes has really started to come on of late and is now shooting an absurd 74% from the field this season. The duo of him and Osetkowski gives Texas a twin towers aspect to deal with down low. Obviously with Azubuike out for the year that leaves Texas with what I see as a nice edge in the paint. Lawson is a stud but right now he’s the only guy over 6’5″ on the Kansas roster who sees meaningful minutes. For as good as he is, he won’t be able to handle both Osetkowski and Hayes on his own. In that first meeting Kansas hit 11-22 from 3 and that’s something I don’t see them duplicating tonight. Texas knows this game is huge towards helping their tournament chances. Granted it’s still just January but you know this game is going to play a big role when the committee is evaluating Texas on selection Sunday. This play isn’t solely situational but I’ll certainly concede that I love the revenge angle, the must win angle, and the fact the Horns should be plenty fired up. As I said earlier they’ve proven they can win big games against good teams and I think they do it again tonight.

Summary:

Miami Ohio (+2.5)
Eastern Michigan (+3)
Texas (-1.5)

About the Author