27
MAR
2019

NCAAB Plays for 3/28

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After a 3 day wait we are ready to resume the tournament that people actually care about and get the Sweet 16 started. 4 games on the slate for Thursday followed by 4 more on Friday. I ended up playing 2 of the 4 on Thursday and here they are plus a full write up for each…. 

Purdue (+1.5): I’ve already mentioned it a few times on Twitter this week so it should be no surprise to you guys that I’m on Purdue here. Most of the year I’ve had Tennessee power rated lower than most and that hasn’t changed as we’ve moved to the big dance. Yes they are in the sweet 16, but again just haven’t been that impressive in getting here. They beat Colgate by 7 in a game they actually trailed with about 10 minutes left. Then in the 2nd round they blew a 20+ point lead against Iowa before having to right the ship and win in OT. In my opinion the Vols are one of those teams with a high floor but a low ceiling. What do I mean by that? They are a good team and unlikely to get blown out in any one game or find a prolonged rough stretch at any point in the season. The flip side of that is their best basketball, their highest level I feel is lower than the highest level of all but 3 teams that are still playing. I don’t mean to be overly critical but that’s just how I feel about this team and those aren’t opinions that were formed overnight. Back as far as December/January I had them power rated lower than most and it is what it is. As far as this game in particular the challenge for the Vols will be on the defensive end. Purdue is 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency and are very well rounded. Leading the way is Edwards who I’ll admit is streaky as hell, but also incredibly dangerous. He averages over 10 3 point attempts per game and the truth is he could go 5 for 11 or 1 for 10 and neither would be that surprising. He’s a wild card, but also and excellent player and if he’s hot Purdue becomes incredibly tough to beat. After Edwards who does the heavy lifting Purdue has other solid and highly efficient players in Haarms, Eastern and Kline. Haarms is a 7’3″ beast that’s a nightmare down low, Kline is a sharp shooting wing who hits over 40% from 3, and Eastern is a kind of a glue guy who does a little bit of everything. If those 4 aren’t enough the starting 5 is rounded out by Eifert who is right now rated as the #1 most efficient player in all of College Basketball according to Ken Pom. Eifert shoots 71% from 2 point land and 44% from 3 point land. He’s not the kind of guy that keeps you awake at night, or that you game plan against…. but if you leave him open he’s going to make you pay. It’s a very, very good offense and all year my concern about the Vols has been their defense. They’ll have their hands full in this one and if they can shut down or at least slow down this Boilers offense a bit, I’ll eat my words and give them some credit. On the other side I will have to admit Tennessee also has an elite offense. They are #3 in offensive efficiency and have 5 players who average in double figures. There’s no denying this is a team that knows how to score the ball. The one knock is they are somewhat one dimensional. As a team 55.6% of the points they score are from 2 point land and that’s 25th in the nation. On the flip side however only 25.7% of their points are from 3 and that’s 320th in the nation. That’s trouble against Purdue as the strength of their defense is inside. Only 44.1% of the points Purdue allows are from 2, and that ranks 325th best (or lowest) in the country. Much of that can obviously be attributed to having the 7’3″ Haarms clogging the paint and that creates an issue for the Vols. Schofield is a very good 3 point shooter but other than him you have guys like Bone, Bowden, and Turner who combined are right D1 average. Any of those 3 are capable of having a nice night from 3, but in general that isn’t how this team wants to beat you. If Purdue can keep them under control inside and force them into more 3 point attempts than they’d like that goes a long ways towards winning this game. I fully expect the Purdue offense to be able to have a big night so it’s just up to the defense to keep things under control and bring home the win. I see a 5-7 point win for the Boilers. 

Florida State (+7.5): This line has come up a bit from where it opened, and at 7.5 I’m perfectly happy making a play on Florida State. Gonzaga is a truly elite team and I don’t think anyone would dispute that. That said most nights they have an overwhelming talent, size, speed, edge over their opponent. Against Florida State that won’t be the case. I’m not going to argue that FSU is better, but they are taller, longer and more athletic. That of course doesn’t mean they won’t lose, but if nothing else it’s add an element to this game that the Zags aren’t accustomed to dealing with. Their best players are Hachimura and Clarke who are both 6’8″ and both excellent offensive weapons. Those two combine for about 37 points per game and if the Noles can’t slow that combo down their chances to win take a massive hit. The good news Florida State both overall and inside are an excellent defense. As a team FSU is 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency, 22nd in 2 point % defense, and 10th overall in average team height. Gonzaga scores 62.2% of their points from 2 and that’s the #1 highest percentage in the nation. As I mentioned earlier that’s due clearly in part to having an elite roster, but also largely because they are just so vastly better than their opponents in about 95% of their games. To be frank about it they aren’t seeing the level of athlete in the WCC that they’ll see here against Florida State. Now I know they’ve challenged themselves in the the non conference against the likes of North Carolina, Tennessee and Duke, but the fact remains FSU is by far the best team they’ve faced since before Christmas. The Zags are amazing but what are they going to do when someone punches them in the mouth? Yes they had that clunker in the WCC tournament against Saint Mary’s but aside from that this team has gone nearly 3 1/2 months since anyone actually challenged them. To me not everything about games can be found on paper. Yes I love my advanced stats, I love my metrics, believe me it’s important as hell and it’s most of what I use when capping a game. I will however say that you can’t ignore the angle of not facing a really good team in that long of a span. As far as FSU goes they are an ACC team and they face excellent opponents all the time. This year Gonzaga played against 3 teams ranked inside the Ken Pom top 25, Florida State on the other hand had 11 such games. As far as the Noles roster goes they don’t have any one great player who scares you to death, they come at you in waves. They have 11 players who average double figure minutes and that’s just unheard of. They are already loaded with elite athletes and by keeping everyones minutes under control Hamilton is able to keep fresh bodies coming at you throughout the game. Forrest, Walker, Savoy and Vassell are all big guards (6’4″ to 6’6″) and again that isn’t something Gonzaga is used to dealing with. That figures to make life more difficult than usual for Perkins and Norvell. On top of all that I haven’t even mentioned Mann yet who is probably FSU’s best player. He’s a very athletic 6’7″ wing who figures to be all over the court. I’m sure he’ll see time on Clarke, time on Hachimura, time on Kispert and even a little time on Norvell. None of this is to try and sell Gonzaga short at all. I know they are an excellent team and while I do think they win this game, 7.5 points is too many in my book. I’ll predict a Gonzaga win but something along the lines of 77-72 in a hard fought and very high quality basketball game. 

Summary: 

Purdue (+1.5)
Florida State (+7.5)

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