07
MAY
2019

MLB Plays for 5/7

comment : 0

Pretty excited for todays card as I’ve made some changes to my model that I think should really help. I’m certainly not complaining about the results to this point but I do think they will get even better now. Without going into the minute details I’ve adjusted some things and it’s tightened up my perceived edges. My threshold for a play is now a perceived edge of 2.5%. However with the model now spitting out tighter numbers I’d assume the amount of plays will remain roughly the same. Here’s what I’ve got today…

Giants (+108): Risking 1.30 to win 1.404 (Bumgarner/Senzatela)
Dodgers (-142): Risking 1.8318 to win 1.29 (Fried/Ryu)

Rangers (+125): Risking 1.20 to win 1.50 (Sampson/Brault)
Twins (-139): Risking 1.4456 to win 1.04 (Berrios/Sanchez)

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