06
NOV
2019

NCAAB 11/6

comment : 0

Yesterday: 2-3, (40.00%)
Season: 2-3, (40.00%)

Sides: 1-1, (50.00%)
Totals: 1-2, (33.33%)
Overall: 2-3, (40.00%)

A 2-3 day to start the season yesterday. Had plenty of CLV across the board but in the case of Bradley and the Cal/Pepperdine under it didn’t matter. Anyways, one day in the books and the rest of the season to go, we keep moving forward. Here’s what I have for Wednesday…

Notre Dame +10 & Notre Dame/North Carolina Un 149: Going to hit this one from both angles going with Notre Dame and the under. More than anything else this is a play on Brey who I consider one of the best in game coaches in the country. He’ll slow the hell out of the pace the best he can and challenge UNC to score in the half court. We all know if UNC can get out and run they’ll score with ease but early in the season I feel half court offense could be a bit of a struggle, at least relative to what they prefer to do when getting up and down. As far the under goes there’s obviously some overlap with the Notre Dame play. Pace (as mentioned before) will be as slow as Brey can get it and he’s smart enough to know keeping it slow is their only chance to win. Defense should be heavily improved with Mooney and Durham holding down the paint. I see a nice boost in minutes for Durham and he might be the most improved player on the roster. Could be some carryover however with the Irish 3 point shooting woes from last year. Granted a small sample size but they were only 12 of 40 from 3 in their two exhibition games. The Heels lost 5 of their top 6 scorers and even though they’ll just re-load as always this is a tricky game to start the season. Talent alone should be enough to get them the win but the Irish are going to make them work for it and the Heels will still be searching for chemistry, go to options, with such an overturned roster. At the end of the day though it mostly comes down to Brey with time to prep, and he’s certainly had plenty of that for this game. Talent wise I’ll concede the Irish are inferior but they have the edge in experience and have played together. This UNC team at least for now is just a collection of hot shot recruits thrown together that haven’t actually become a team yet. I see something like a 76-70 UNC win.

Syracuse (+3): The key to beating Cuse (as it is every year) is being able to hit 3’s and shoot over that zone. In recent years with guys like Jerome, Guy and Hunter Virginia has been able to do that. Last year those 3 combined to go 245 for 585 (41.9%) from 3 point land. It isn’t just the percentage either, they as a trio were making an average of 6.5 3’s per game. That’s a lot of offense to replace. Last year only 40.2% of the points Cuse allowed were from 2 point land and that was 350th in the nation. In other words it’s tough as hell to score on them inside. If you can’t hit a bunch of 3’s you likely aren’t going to win and with the trio I mentioned before being gone, I think they struggle. On the Cuse side Ken Pom actually downgrades the offense from 2019 which I disagree with. Battle is a tough loss but guys like Howard and Brissett were very inefficient players. Oddly enough I think there could be a little addition by subtraction with them gone. They were very heavy usage guys, with well below average efficiency ratings. To be frank about it I think some of the newer guys who will have end up getting heavy usage will produce at a better level than the Howard, Brissett, did a year ago and the market in my opinion hasn’t captured that with this line. An outright win for the Orange wouldn’t surprise me a bit but I’ll take my chances with 3 points in my back pocket in a game that should come down to the final minutes.

Summary: 

Notre Dame (+10)
Notre Dame/North Carolina Un 149
Syracuse (+3)

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