02
DEC
2019

NCAAB 12/2

comment : 0

Sunday: 6-1, (85.71%)

November: 74-72-1, (50.68%)
December: 6-1-0, (85.71%)
Season: 80-73-1, (52.28%)

Sides: 39-38-1, (50.64%)
Totals: 41-35, (53.94%)
Overall: 80-73-1, (52.28%)

A solid 6-1 showing on Sunday and now my season numbers are starting to get closer to what I’m accustomed to doing. Sides still hovering around 50% but totals now up to nearly 54% as I’m really settling in on those. Back to the normal routine today with full write ups for my plays. Here’s what I’ve got…

Columbia (+6.5): Delaware is off to an 8-0 start but I’m taking it with a massive grain of salt. Credit to them for winning 8 straight to open the season but the truth is they’ve done it against the 315th toughest schedule in the nation. The best win they’ve had this season is over Oakland who is currently ranked 186 by Ken Pom. In fact tonight Columbia is going to be the toughest opponent they’ve had so far this season. On the other side we have Columbia who is 3-5 but has at least tested themselves. They’ve already faced Wake Forest, Virginia, St. Johns and Rider. The Lions are led by PG Mike Smith who is one of the best under the radar PG’s in the nation.  He averages 21 points, 5 assts, and nearly 4 rebounds to go with 49% shooting from the field and 47% shooting from 3. The issue for Delaware is they have nobody who can guard him. Anderson has a nice size edge but he’s nowhere near quick enough to stay in front of him. On the Delaware side Darling has been carrying the load but Columbia has some athletic wings to throw at him with Killingsworth, Forrest, and maybe even some Ellis. Coming into the season Columbia was actually ranked 105 spots above Delaware. If they played in the season opener on a neutral floor Columbia would’ve been a 6-7 point favorite. Fast forward to now and it’s the same thing except the other way. I find it hard to believe there is a 13-14 point difference between these two teams now compared to where it was a month ago. At the end of the day it’s a classic buy low, sell high spot and I can’t pass on it.

South Dakota (+13): Obviously there is a wide talent gap between Washington and South Dakota but in this one the great equalizer in play is the 3 point line. South Dakota is an excellent 3 point shooting team and the Washington perimeter defense has been very shaky. As a team Washington is allowing opponents to shoot 38.4% from 3 point land which is 311th in the nation. The Huskies are also allowing their opponents to score 39.7% of their overall points from 3 point land which is 18th highest in the nation. In other words if you can shoot it from 3 you can have some success against Washington. Now enter South Dakota who comes into this one shooting 46.7% from 3 which is #1 in the nation. In particularly dangerous is Hagedorn who is 6’10” stretch 5 that can knock down the 3. So far this year he’s 18-24 (75%) from 3 point land and no that isn’t a typo. Against a team like Washington a big man that can step out and shoot 3’s is the last thing they want to see and Hagedorn is clearly one of the best 3 point shooting bigs in the country. On the defensive end there’s no denying the Coyotes will have a big size disadvantage but their interior defenders are better than you’d think. The already mentioned Hagedorn loves to step out offensively but defensively he’s fine clogging the paint. Umode is also a very athletic wing who is capable of crashing the boards and making life difficult on the Huskies bigs. Washington still probably wins but I think South Dakota hangs around throughout.

Summary:  

Columbia (+6.5)
South Dakota (+13)

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